I. Sharp drop in international oil prices
1. WTI and Brent crude oil both fell sharply
According to the closing data of the New York Mercantile Exchange on May 5, WTI crude oil (delivery in June) fell by $1.16 to $57.13 per barrel, and Brent crude oil (delivery in July) fell by $1.06 to $60.23 per barrel. The decline continued during the session on May 6, with the average price of crude oil falling by more than 5%, the largest single-day drop since 2025.
2. Supply and demand imbalance and OPEC+ production increase pressure
OPEC+ decided to increase production again from June, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply. The daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (such as the United States and Brazil) reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the daily demand growth rate of 1.03 million barrels predicted by the International Energy Agency. Market analysts believe that OPEC+'s strategy of "punishing over-producing members" by increasing production has led to a sharp drop in oil prices.
---
II. Impact of policies and trade frictions
1. The tariff game between China and the United States has escalated. The United States announced a 100% tariff on imported films, and China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy products, further pressuring the energy trade chain. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that this move may drag down global economic growth.
2. Controversy over U.S. biodiesel policy
The United States plans to increase the biomass diesel blending quota to 5.5 billion to 5.75 billion gallons, but small refiners oppose it, saying it will push up costs and threaten employment. The implementation of the policy may indirectly affect crude oil demand.
---
III. Market fundamentals and industry dynamics
1. Shale gas sector performed weakly
On May 6, the shale gas sector fell 0.13%, led by PetroChina, but the main funds still had a net inflow of 28.2486 million yuan, showing the market's complex sentiment towards traditional energy stocks.
2. Decline in petroleum coke industry chain index
The petroleum coke industry chain index fell 1.95 points from the previous day to 112.11, and has been halved from the high point in the cycle, reflecting that the contradiction between supply and demand in the refined oil market continues to expand.
---
IV. Clean energy and technological transformation
- Acceleration of commercialization of hydrogen energy technology
China and the EU are promoting the construction of hydrogen energy pipelines. It is expected that the cost of green hydrogen will drop below US$2/kg in 2030, which will weaken the share of oil in the transportation energy field in the long term.
---
V. China market dynamics
1. Progress of Jilin Petrochemical Project
The Jilin Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Transformation and Upgrading Project has completed the high-standard intermediate handover of 10 sets of equipment, becoming a demonstration project for the green and low-carbon transformation of traditional domestic refining and chemical enterprises.
2. Fluctuation of refined oil prices
On May 6, the retail price of gasoline and diesel in Beijing, Tianjin and other places was about 7.09-9.06 yuan/liter, a slight adjustment from the previous day. The plunge in international oil prices may promote the opening of a new round of domestic price adjustment windows.