I. International oil prices continue to be under pressure
1. OPEC+ production increase plan and Saudi Arabia's change of attitude
OPEC+ announced that it will increase daily production by 411,000 barrels from June, expanding production for the second consecutive month, aiming to punish illegal overproduction countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. Saudi Arabia is also considering gradually canceling its previous voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, highlighting the intensification of internal differences on compliance issues.
Saudi Aramco lowered the export oil price for Asian customers and stated for the first time that it is "acceptable to the era of long-term low oil prices". The market expects that the central price of oil may further drop to US$50/barrel, or even to US$40/barrel in 2026.
2. Technical aspects and supply and demand contradictions
International oil prices continued to fluctuate on May 4, with WTI crude oil falling below the psychological mark of US$60/barrel and Brent crude oil hitting a low of US$61.77/barrel. The imbalance between supply and demand remains the core contradiction. The daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (such as the United States and Brazil) reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the growth rate of demand.
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II. US policies and global trade frictions
1. Escalation of sanctions against Russia
The United States announced new sanctions on the Russian oil industry, targeting more than 180 tankers, core enterprises (such as Gazprom Neft) and traders, directly affecting 25% of Russia's seaborne exports. China, Japan and South Korea accelerated the adjustment of their energy import structure and turned to Middle Eastern and Russian crude oil.
2. China-US tariff game
China imposed a 34% tariff on US crude oil, liquefied natural gas, etc., while the United States imposed a total of 104% tariffs on Chinese goods (including the previous 54% "reciprocal tariff" and the new 50% additional tariff). Six Chinese industry chambers of commerce issued a joint statement supporting the government's countermeasures, and the global energy trade chain was further under pressure.
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III. Domestic market dynamics
1. Domestic oil prices have dropped sharply
On May 4, domestic oil prices fell to a three-year low, and gasoline and diesel prices at gas stations in 31 provinces and cities were reduced simultaneously. The new round of price adjustment window will open on May 19, and the market expects that the downward trend may continue.
2. Refining and chemical companies are planning low-carbon transformation
In the first quarter, the State Energy Group maintained more than 50 million tons of self-produced coal, and the market share of coal shipped from northern ports exceeded 40%. At the same time, it promoted coal-fired power upgrades and AI+ industry empowerment. CNOOC's senior management team was adjusted, and Liu Yongjie and Liu Xiaogang were appointed vice presidents to strengthen management strength.
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IV. Long-term industry trends and institutional forecasts
- Clean energy impact intensified
The commercialization of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is accelerating, and it is expected that the cost of green hydrogen will drop to less than US$2/kg in 2030, which will weaken oil demand in the long term. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the US tariff policy may drag down the global economy and further suppress crude oil consumption.