I. International oil prices plummeted to a four-year low
1. WTI fell below the psychological barrier of $60
During the trading session on April 7, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $58.95 per barrel, the lowest level since April 2021. At the close of the day, WTI was at $60.70 per barrel and Brent crude oil was at $64.21 per barrel, with cumulative declines of 15.35% and 14.32% in three trading days respectively. This plunge is the largest consecutive decline since 2025.
2. Supply and demand imbalance and policy shocks
The main driving factors include:
- OPEC+'s unexpected increase in production: Saudi Arabia, Russia and other 8 countries announced that their daily production would increase by 410,000 barrels from April, far exceeding the original plan, exacerbating concerns about oversupply;
- US tariff policy: Trump imposed energy tariffs on the EU and China, and China's countermeasures were implemented, putting pressure on the global energy trade chain;
- US dollar and inventory pressure: The Fed's hawkish policy expectations pushed the US dollar to strengthen, and US commercial crude oil inventories continued to accumulate.
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II. Geopolitics and market chain reactions
1. Global stock markets and gold plummeted simultaneously
From April 4 to 7, the Dow Jones Index fell 5.5% in total, the largest drop since 2020; European stock markets fell more than 5%, and the Saudi stock index fell 6.78% in a single day. Gold prices fell simultaneously, and the market fell into panic selling.
2. Russian crude oil export price cut in half
On April 4, the export price of Russian Urals crude oil fell to $52.76 per barrel, down nearly 40% from the beginning of the year. US sanctions have blocked about 25% of its seaborne exports, and Asian buyers are accelerating the adjustment of the supply chain.
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III. Long-term industry trends and technological changes
- Hydrogen energy substitution is accelerating
China and the European Union announced plans to build hydrogen energy pipelines, and it is expected that the cost of green hydrogen will be less than $2 per kilogram in 2030, further weakening the demand for oil in the transportation and energy sectors.
- Transformation pressure of refining companies
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have deployed hydrogen energy equipment through bulk transactions, and traditional energy giants are facing the challenge of balancing low-carbon technology investment and profitability.
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IV. Outlook for the future and investment strategy
1. Technical support level test
The price center of Brent crude oil may drop to the range of $65-70 per barrel, and the market is concerned about whether the psychological support level of $60 per barrel is effective.
2. Policy risks and opportunities
Recommended attention:
- PetroChina, CNOOC: energy blue-chip stocks with both policy dividends and transformation flexibility;
- Refining and chemical integration: capital operation trends of companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical.
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Summary: Core contradictions in the market
The current oil market is facing a "sandwich squeeze":
- Upper pressure: clean energy substitution and tariff policy impact;
- Bottom support: geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production restrictions;
- Sandwich layer: supply and demand imbalance and capital flow contradictions.
In the short term, we need to be vigilant against the risk of further declines in oil prices.
If you need real-time data, you can refer to the New York Mercantile Exchange or Bloomberg, Reuters and other platforms.